UFC 231 – Max Holloway vs. Brian Ortega – Betting Predictions

Posted July 4, 2019

From a fan’s standpoint, UFC 231 is a fantastic occasion. In terms of betting opportunities, I’m feeling lukewarm. Nevertheless, here are my breakdowns of the fights I’m trying to playwith. Gilbert Burns vs. Olivier Aubin-Mercier
Decorated jiu-jitsu champion and second degree black belt, Gilbert Burns, has been working on his striking in recent decades. Training under famed Dutch kickboxer, Henri Hooft, Burns is now comfortable wherever the fight takes place.
With his newfound striking skills, Burns scored emphatic knockout victories over Jason Saggo and Dan Moret. Regrettably, preferring to bang Dan Hooker proved to be disastrous and Burns was finished in his final fight. I dropped money thinking Burns would grapple — oh well!
Even though a good striker, Burns takes risks defensively and loads up on his own shots. Dan Hooker is the kind of fighter that could capitalize on defensive lapses — however I’m unsure Olivier Aubin-Mercier is.
Coming out of a judo background, Aubin-Mercier is exceptionally strong from the clinch and hefty from top position. While he is a whole lot more proficient on the feet than he used to be, Aubin-Mercier still lacks the fluidity of someone that is a natural striker. He’s light on his toes, in and out with his movement and somewhat tentative — but is accurate when he fires.
While Aubin-Mercier is a jiu-jitsu brown belt, I doubt he would like to go to the mat with Burns. The muscle-bound human blanket, Michel Prazeres, refused to dive into the protector of Gilbert Burns — that speaks volumes.
In his last battle, Aubin-Mercier appeared a step behind in the scrambles from Alexander Hernandez and I would expect a master of body manipulation like Gilbert Burns to dominate the mat too (although I wish there was more footage of Burns fighting off his back to create a better assessment).
I believe the striking exchanges will be aggressive, but I provide Burns a slight edge. Stylistically, this seems tricky for Aubin-Mercier and that I can not predict his strategy. Perhaps the Canadian will attempt to control his competitor against the fence, but without shooting takedowns?
I do believe Aubin-Mercier is the better athlete and certainly has the superior cardio. However, I will take my chances with Gilbert Burns as a +120 underdog as I think he must be a small favorite.
Elias Theodorou vs. Eryk Anders
At a middleweight showdown between two fighters with contrasting designs (and characters ), Eryk Anders takes on Elias Theodorou.
A fantastic athletic, Anders is volatile yet has good cardio. Struggling from the southpaw stance, Anders packs enormous electricity in his left hand but in my opinion, goes head searching a bit too much. In his last bout, Thiago Santos was prepared for the key weapon of Anders — which limited his offensive victory.