Your Guide To The 2019 NCAA Men’s Tournament: Midwest region

Posted September 11, 2019

Top seed outlook: On paper, the Midwest seems to be the most open of those four regions, but we nevertheless give No. 1 North Carolina the best odds, using a 35 percent probability of reaching the Final Four and also an 18 percent probability of appearing in the national championship match. Those chances are 8 percentage points lower than any other No. 1 team in the area, however, and for good reason: North Carolina’s offense depends on turning each play right into a fast break. The Tar Heels struggle to get into the free-throw lineup and give up a ton of shots across the perimeter, and that, in a slowed-down, half-court matchup, could be rather problematic.
After getting waxed by Duke to start the summer, No. 2 Kentucky has caught fire in recent weeks while finding balance on the two ends of the ground and mostly abstaining from the 3-point line. No. 3 Houston, meanwhile, is currently in the midst of its very best season because Clyde Drexler and Hakeem Olajuwon were revolutionizing college basketball, and they boast a defense that ranks among the very best together and in the perimeter.
Sneaky Final Four pick: No. 5 Auburn. When the Tigers steamrolled Tennessee 84-64 in Sunday’s SEC title game, it likely got the focus of a lot of bracket-pickers. That was not a one off — Auburn also beat Tennessee eight days before, a portion of a series of eight straight wins for the Tigers, and 10 in their past 11 games. Having an explosive offense (No. 8 in KenPom efficiency) that acquired more of its points out of downtown compared to every other team in the NCAA field, Auburn can heat up in a hurry. We give the Tigers almost a coin-flip’s likelihood of making the Sweet 16 — and also a very strong 37 percent likelihood of beating top-seeded North Carolina when the Tar Heels are waiting for Auburn there. The only kryptonite might be a hypothetical regional-final matchup with No. 2 seed Kentucky, which defeat the Tigers from 27 in late February to sweep their season series.
Do not wager on: No. 4 Kansas. The Jayhawks went into the year ranked No. 1 in the AP’s preseason poll, and they seemed to validate that the option by starting the season 10-0. But a 15-9 record (plus a few key injuries) since then have cast doubt on Kansas’s NCAA Tournament potential. This really is a well-balanced team, but to state it does not shoot well from the exterior is an understatement — watch KU’s 3-for-18 performance from profound into Saturday’s Big 12 ouster against Iowa State. Add an unfavorable draw that sets them onto a potential second-round collision course with Auburn (see above), and also we give the Jayhawks only an 8 percent chance of making out of the Midwest with their championship hopes undamaged.
Cinderella see: No. 11 Ohio State. If a Big Ten team which has made 11 Final Fours could be a Cinderella, then you’re considering it in these Buckeyes. (Hey, the committee’s rising tendency to con underwhelming power-conference colleges this way really messes with the definition.) OSU went only 18-13 during the regular season, was defeated its second Big Ten tournament game and has almost twice as many losses as wins since New Year’s. So why are the Buckeyes a potential Cinderella? Regardless of the seed, this remains a dangerous group, one which ranks 27th from Pomeroy’s adjusted defensive ratings and has star forwards Kaleb Wesson back out of suspension. So maybe they will provide Big 12 champ Iowa State trouble. But mainly this tells you something about the other prospective Cinderellas in this area: Seton Hall obtained a very tough first-round matchup with underseeded Wofford; none of those additional low seeds here are world-beaters. That leaves the Buckeyes, a group that did all it could to play its way from this tournament, but includes some upset potential regardless.
Player to watch: UNC, Cameron Johnson On a team that doesn’t hoist a lot of shots from the perimeter, Johnson is as deadly as they come. Observing an injury-riddled campaign where he made greater than one third of his appearances from outside the arc, the graduate student is canning 46.5 percent of his efforts, which ranks inside the top 25 nationally.
Johnson has flourished in North Carolina’s every-possession-is-a-transition-opportunity scheme this year. He has blossomed into one of the best scorers in the ACC, ranking between the 85th and 100th percentiles in scoring efficacy in transitionoff displays and on spot-ups.
Johnson has elevated his game in conference play, boasting the ACC’s top offensive rating (132.5) and accurate shooting percentage (64.6). Unexpectedly, a participant who was not seen as a bonded professional now projects for a second-round pick.
Likeliest first-round upsets: No. 9 Washington over No. 8 Utah State (49 percent); No. 10 Seton Hall over No. 7 Wofford (37 percent); No. 11 Ohio State over No. 6 Iowa State (33 percent)
Check out our March Madness forecasts.
CORRECTION (March 18, 2019, 3:10 p.m.): A former version of this story misstated the amount of Sweet 16s created by Villanova lately. Though the Wildcats have reached the NCAA Tournament’s”third round” in four of their past five seasons, that around was the Round of 32 until 2016 due to NCAA naming conventions.