Bleacher Report’s Expert Consensus Week 13 NFL Picks

Posted September 12, 2019

Will this get any easier? Based on the way Bleacher Report NFL analysts are currently faring against the spread this season, it can’t get much tougher.
Deciding at every game, Brad Gagnon Gary Davenport and Brent Sobleski had another challenging streak in Week 12, dropping their record . Individually and as a team, here is the harm through 12 months (last week’s records in parentheses):
1. Gary Davenport: 92-78-6 (7-8)
2. Brent Sobleski: 81-89-6 (7-8)
3. Brad Gagnon: 78-92-6 (5-10)
Consensus choices: 83-87-6 (7-8)
With December loomingwe asked longtime sports gambling analyst Dave Tuley when there might be some light at the end of the tunnel for the betting public or if the sportsbooks will last to benefit from larger samples late in the summer season.
Tuley gave us some hope, but not sufficient to get.
“There was a period under a dozen years ago where I had a bunch of years in a row where I just killed it the next half of the year and in December,” he explained. “At that time, I felt like it was just the time of year once the good teams were overrated and the bad teams were underrated, and with parity what it had been, the underdogs were performing a whole lot better at the time.”
However, Tuley notes that neither the books nor the bettors have encountered significant advantages . “Just as bettors wish to think that we are becoming smarter the more we see these teams play,” he said,”obviously the oddsmakers are seeing the very same things we are, and they’re adjusting and which makes it tough also.”
However, he believes it’s possible to pick out lines that have been exaggerated by midseason streaks and/or slumps. In particular, he pointed at the 7.5-point distribute in favor of the New Orleans Saints in a road matchup with the NFC East-leading Dallas Cowboys on Thursday night.
With that lineup, oddsmakers are indicating the Saints would be preferred by as many as 13 or 14 points if that game were in New Orleans, which does seem high considering the Cowboys are riding a three-game winning streak.
“That’s [a manifestation of] how the Saints have been playing,” Tuley said. “For the novels to balance their actions, they have to place it at the amount.”
It’s something to keep in mind as we enter the 2018 season’s final month. It might not save your season but if you’ve been following us all year, any advice helps.
Here’s what Davenport, Gagnon and Sobleski are currently thinking heading into the first slate in two or more months.