NASCAR at Phoenix odds, picks 2019: Model says Clint Bowyer surprises at TicketGuardian 500

Posted October 5, 2019

The green flag drops for the 2019 TicketGuardian 500 at ISM Raceway in suburban Phoenix on Sunday at 3:30 p.m. ET. After an electric start to the season at Daytona and 2 fast 1.5-mile tracks in Atlanta and Las Vegas, Phoenix is the Dragon Energy NASCAR cup series’ first race at the tighter quarters of the one-mile loop in ISM Raceway. Kevin Harvick has won four of the last five March races at this track and will be the 9-4 favorite to collect another win in the most current 2019 TicketGuardian 500 odds. Fellow veteran and Daytona 500 winner Denny Hamlin is getting 16-1, while Kurt Busch reaches 30-1 NASCAR at Phoenix chances after a solid start to his season that has him eighth in the NASCAR standings. Prior to making your own 2019 TicketGuardian 500 selections, be sure to check at the NASCAR at Phoenix projected leaderboard in the SportsLine Projection Model.

Developed by DFS pro and SportsLine predictive information engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction computer model simulates every race 10,000 occasions, taking factors like track record and recent results into consideration.

It made some enormous calls in NASCAR last year, including properly casting wins for Kyle Busch in Chicago and Martin Truex Jr. at Sonoma. Plus it is off to a powerful start in NASCAR this season, calling Daytona 500 winner Denny Hamlin a top-four contender and nailing eight of the top 10 drivers in last week’s Pennzoil 400, which included placing winner Joey Logano in its own projected top five. Anyone who has followed its picks is way up.

Grew up around race tracks. Big events in places like ISM Raceway are in his bloodstream. His model has simulated Sunday’s 2019 NASCAR in Phoenix race 10,000 times and the results were surprising.

For your 2019 TicketGuardian 500, we could tell you that the model is high on Clint Bowyer, making a strong run in the checkered flag despite heading off as a very long shot at 25-1 NASCAR chances. He’s a target for anybody looking for a payday.

Bowyer struck a five-season drought without a win and went on to grab a pair of victories at Martinsville and Michigan on the way to some 12th-place end in the NASCAR Playoffs. This season, he’s added a top-five finish at Atlanta and has shown impressive speed occasionally. Bowyer has seven career top-10s at Phoenix and won a truck series race at this track in 2010.

Bowyer, who drives for Stewart-Haas Racing, was second in among this year’s Daytona Duels and shut out a year’s NASCAR schedule using an eight-place ending at Homestead. He’ll also come armed to the 2019 TicketGuardian 500 using a similar car setup to teammates Harvick and Aric Almirola.

Among the shocking 2019 NASCAR in Phoenix picks from the version: Kevin Harvick, a nine-time winner in ISM Raceway along with the very best Vegas favorite, makes a strong run but falls short of winning it all.

Harvick has made a career from getting to the front of the package consistently at this track. In fact, He’s finished in the top 10 in 11 consecutive starts at ISM Raceway

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