Exotic wagers on the Kentucky Derby can pay off big. Here are the best bets.

Updated on Cutting Humor to reflect the scratch of jockey and Haikal Change

Since the Kentucky Derby in 2013 adopted a points system to qualify for the 20-horse field, chalk has mastered the winner’s team. Justify, Always Dreaming, Nyquist, American Pharoah, California Chrome and Orb were post-time favorites, returning between $6.60 and $12.80 on a $2 win bet — a far cry from enormous payouts of yore, which included I’ll Have Another ($32.60 at 2012), Animal Kingdom ($43.80 in 2011), Mine That Bird ($103.20 at 2009) and Giacomo ($102.60 in 2005).
[Everything you Want to know about the 2019 Kentucky Derby] On the flip side, exotic bets such as the trifecta (picking the first three finishers in order) and superfecta (choosing the first four finishers in order) continue to supply betting bonanzas. Last year’s $1 superfecta paid $19,618.20. In 2017 the $1 paid $8,297.20 in addition to a different monster superfecta ($75,974.50).Updated to reflect the scrape of Haikal and jockey change on Cutting Humor
Considering that the Kentucky Derby in 2013 adopted a points system to meet the requirements for the 20-horse area, chalk has ruled that the winner’s circle. Justify, Always Dreaming, Nyquist, American Pharoah, California Chrome and Orb were all post-time favorites, returning between $6.60 and $12.80 to a $2 win bet — a far cry from enormous payouts of yore, which included I Will Have Another ($32.60 in 2012), Animal Kingdom ($43.80 in 2011), Mine This Bird ($103.20 in 2009) and Giacomo ($102.60 in 2005).
[] On the other hand, exotic bets like the trifecta (choosing the first 3 finishers in order) and superfecta (choosing the first four finishers so ) continue to provide betting bonanzas. Last year’s $1 superfecta paid $19,618.20. In 2017 the $1 triple paid $8,297.20 in addition to another monster superfecta ($75,974.50).Isolating the top three or even four finishers at a 20-horse field known for its chaos is not simple, but in addition to having a good pedigree and a good foundation, a horse requires tactical speed to have the ability to keep up with the pace.
Brisnet classified just one horse in the area, Omaha Beach, as a need-to-lead type, or’E’ horse, but he was scratched on Wednesday, leaving 15 horses set to be stalk the early speed (‘EP’ horses) or near it (‘P’ horses) between the initial (half-mile) and second (three-quarters of a mile) calls. Four others are considered sustainers or closers (‘S’) and will make their move from farther back.
[2019 Kentucky Derby horses, post positions, odds, evaluation and Begin time] NEED-TO-LEAD (‘E’) EARLY PRESSER (‘EP’) PRESSER (‘P’) SUSTAINER OR CLOSER (‘S’)
None Maximum Security Improbable Win Win Win
Spinoff Cutting Humor Code of Honor
Roadster By My Standards Country House
Tax Tacitus Master Fencer
Gray Magician
Vekoma
War of Will
Extended Range Toddy
Plus Que Parfait
Game Winner
Bodexpress
But, some horses will be forced by Tuesday’s post position draw . For instance, Mark Casse, trainer of War Will (post ranking No. 2) said after the draw that his horse will”likely be on the direct and play catch me if you can.” If he doesn’t visit the front, look for Tax, in place No. 3, to”come out running and sit on the rail,” according to Tax’s trainer, Danny Gargan. Maximum Security (No. 7) will also likely be up front but, with a scarcity of accurate speedsters in the race, the rate shouldn’t be fast enough to hamper Maximum Security’s capacity to last 11/4 miles.
Being among the first flight of horses is key. Over the previous six years each Kentucky Derby winner but one, Orb in 2013, was categorized as using a stalking (‘EP’) working style. Half of the horses (12 out of 24) that hit the board over that length had an’EP’ running style as well with others recorded as pressers (‘P’), horses sitting just off the leaders in the very first call.
Maximum Security qualifies on merit plus running fashion. I would also add Game Winner, Vekoma, Tax, Spinoff and Improbable as great value plays to hit the board on Saturday over a fast track.
[Three Kentucky Derby long shots worth a bet ] Improbable is listed by Brisnet as a presser but he has never been over 21/2 lengths behind the leader at the first or second call. Nyquist was four lengths behind the leader at the very first call from the 2016 Kentucky Derby and American Pharoah was just two lengths off the lead at the first call in 2015. Both won and Improbable looks like a winner here. In the minimum, he’s worth using as a key horse into your trifectas and superfectas.
Spinoff inherited almost 3 times as much speed as endurance from his lineage (2.78 Dosage Index) and his ancient presser running style ought to have him in prime position to make a splash.
Vekoma has a comparable speed profile (2.56 Dosage Index) and his success in the Blue Grass — which included a career high Brisnet pace figure (how fast he ran from the start to the second call) of 114 — is reason for optimism this Saturday.
Game Winner failed since the favored in his past two races but he’s hit the board in all six of his starts, never finishing worse than second. But Baffert has trained two Triple Crown winners in the previous 3 decades so that you will not ever be able to count one of his horses out.
Tax might need to expend energy to acquire a comfortable place on the railroad but he’s three triple-digit Brisnet rate figures in a row using a new career pace figure (105) in his last homework, the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct, which makes him an appealing overlay for its superfecta in 20-1 odds.
Win Win Win, By My Standards and Cutting Humor also deserve attention from superfecta wagers.
Win Win Win closed into a fast pace throughout his second-place end in the Blue Grass at April and also his pedigree sets up nicely for a continuing run at the traditional distance.
By My Standards set a career-high Brisnet speed figure in his Louisiana Derby triumph (102) along with his trainer has a positive anticipation for graded stakes races in 2019, meaning a $2 blind wager on Bret Calhoun’s horses in these events would net you a 74-cent gain this season. Same for jockey Gabriel Saez (plus-$1.18 net profit on course races each $2 wagered in 2019), who has ridden this horse since his first career start at Churchill Downs in November of this past year.
Mike Smith, Hall of Fame jockey and two-time winner of the Kentucky Derby, will replace Corey Lanerie on Cutting Humor. The dark brown colt should in contact with the leaders similar to his victory from the Sunland Derby, allowing him to utilize his late kick to grab a piece of the board.
With that in mind, here is how I would assemble my trifecta and superfecta tickets.

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