Jane Philpott faces long odds of re-election

Posted December 21, 2019

On Monday, we presented a poll showing that Jody Wilson-Raybould was currently aggressive as an Independent candidate in the district of Vancouver Granville. Today, we take a look at fellow Independent Jane Philpott’s district of Markham-Stouffville, a suburb of Toronto located in the crucial GTA region of Ontario.
In 2015, Philpott won the recently established district of Markham-Stouffville by six points over her Conservative opponent at a definite two-way race between the Liberals and Conservatives (the Greens and NDP won a combined eight percent of the popular vote). It would therefore be wise to put in the hypothesis that, with Philpott running as an Independent next fall, a split Liberal-Philpott vote might potentially open up the opportunity for a rather easy Conservative win.
But a new survey commissioned by 338Canada and conducted by Mainstreet Research. Com shows the race Markham-Stouffville could be a lot closer than first thought. Additionally, it reveals Philpott facing long odds to acquire re-election, sitting well back of their front-running Liberals and second-place Conservatives.
The poll was conducted between May 29 and May 30 and collected goals of 601 voters in Markham-Stouffville. This is a sample using a margin of error of ??4 per cent, 19 times out of 20. The poll report is available here.
On the question:”When the national election were held now, which party would you vote for?” Respondents were given the following choices:
Liberal, led by Justin Trudeau Conservative, led by Andrew Scheer NDP Green Separate candidate Jane Philpott