BIG MARLEY’S UFC 237 DRAFTKINGS FANTASY BREAKDOWN

Posted September 25, 2019

This weekend, we’ve got a 12-fight PPV card in Brazil. DraftKings has some strong competitions for us to win a lot of money from this week. The main GPP is a $15 buy and $30k goes to 1st place with a total of $150k being paid out. They also have a new Qualifier only competition for $175,000. There will be 100 qualifiers for that contest and they’ll compete for a $50k first location cost and $175k will be distributed between all 100 admissions that qualify. I will attempt to receive my 3rd seat this week to max it if I can. Those Qualifier only contests can be real bankroll suckers, so be cautious chasing those overly hard. I will probably stick to the top GPP this week and then throw a small number of entries at the $30k prize, then I will likely take a few shots at the Q. I will also be posting H2Hs as well as picking up H2Hs throughout the week to get a good quantity of play into money games.
With that said, let’s get to a couple plays I like this week along with my fade of this week:
Money Game play of this week — Raoni Barcelos — $9,600
Barcelos is the cash game play on for me . On the betting line he is now -1100 and he is -206 to win ITD. He is also +110 to win in round 1. He is my favourite play on the plank, the only issue is being able to afford him. For cash games, I will for sure fit him in. For GPPs it will be more difficult to get 6 wins paying for his massive salary, but I like him there as well. I just won’t make it a priority for him into those championship lineups, but money I need that -1100 in my group for a secure win.
GPP play of this week — Ryan Spann — $8,800
This is a battle I’d like to target. My preferred drama is Spann however Little Nog is in play as well. The best thing for FDGTD is -280 and that I believe Spann can win via KO or sub, and it could be 1st round too. I think he could compete with the $9k fighters and he could be a guy that kicks off them the 1st place lineup. Little Nog is the better boxer though and Spann doesn’t have a great chin himself, so I could see Nog winning via KO. I don’t think that’s probably, so I won’t be heavy on himbut he can make my player pool. Spann is a man I believe is in play in all formats and that I will attempt to be obese on him. It is more of a fade on Small Nog at this time, but I don’t see this fight going all 3-rounds and that I enjoy Spann to find the win.
Underdog play of this week — Alex Volkanovski — $7,800
On DraftKings, I anticipate Volkanovski to be very chalky and rightfully so. He’s my favorite play in this battle and his previous scores pretty much make him a guy you can’t fade if you’re MMEing. I don’t see him using the ceiling he did in his previous fights vs Aldo, but these numbers are difficult to dismiss. His 6 UFC wins have every totaled over 100 DK points. From most recent struggle to his debut, all these are his DK scores: 107, 100, 129, 116, 107, and 115. That is pretty amazing. I believe he has a good prospect of upsetting the legend here and maybe getting an end for another high score. I don’t believe Aldo is a fantastic matchup for him to show that 100+ point ceiling however at $7.8k we do not require that lots of points. I think IF he wins, he readily pays off that wages.
Fade of this week — Luana Carolina — $8,900
There’s absolutely no way I’m paying 8.9k for Carolina. She’s the fade of this week and if it disturbs me then it burns me. I really don’t see that being the case though even when she wins. I expect this struggle to stay standing and that I really don’t see her striking at a pace to pay off her price tag without getting a finish. I don’t believe she gets that complete so even if she wins I think she scores closer to 75 DK points and in her salary that won’t wind up to the optimal lineup. Even if I create 150 lineups this week I will not receive any exposure to Carolina.
Thanks for reading this and decent luck this weekend! If You’d like my own full-card breakdown at which I breakdown every fight about the card and give my complete DraftKings evaluation, as well as all of my pick predictions, you can find that for only $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium bets are offered at that link as well. I’m 76-45 for +260.95 (+$26,095) since May 19th, 2018 on Premium Plays)

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