Handicapping NASCAR’s Championship Four at Homestead-Miami Speedway

Posted September 25, 2019

Kyle Busch, Kevin Harvick, Martin Truex Jr. and Joey Logano will race to the 2018 Dragon Energy NASCAR Cup Series championship Sunday at Homestead-Miami Speedway (Green flag: 3:03 p.m. ET, NBC).

In accordance with gambling odds from Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, Busch and Harvick will be the favorites in +200, followed closely by Truex (+275) and Logano (+450).
Using historical results and 2018 loop data, we handicap the race and give a championship pick.
After 35 races, Kyle Busch, Kevin Harvick, Martin Truex Jr. and Joey Logano have earned the right to battle for the 2018 Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series (MENCS) championship Sunday at Homestead-Miami Speedway.

Busch (2015), Harvick (2014) and Truex (2017) have all notched one championship in their own professions, while Logano is trying to secure his original.

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It is not surprise to visit Busch, Harvick and Truex still living, as”The Big Three” combined to win 20 of the 35 regular-season races this year. Logano scored two wins himself, but awakened 25 top-10 endings to earn his shot at Homestead.

Employing historic loop data from FantasyRacingCheatSheet.com, let’s break down the contenders to ascertain the best bet to acquire the 2018 Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series championship.

The Track
Even though Homestead-Miami joins a few other MENCS monitors at 1.5 miles in length, there really aren’t any others on the circuit like it.

Homestead offers progressive banking, which enables many lines to conduct , with the lane frequently the fastest.

The track surface is also quite abrasive, which makes new rubberized a huge benefit and wears out tires quickly.

With tire wear making automobiles hard to drive and progressive banking allowing drivers to choose different lines, passing is easier here than at most other 1.5-mile tracks that are overly reliant on aero for speed and so make follow-the-leader racing.

For the analysis below, I chose to examine the past four races at Hometead-Miami Speedway.

Applying four races might appear a little random, but I picked that amount . 2014 was the year which NASCAR went into the current playoff format in which drivers advance through the sport’s playoff until four remain to race .