Your Guide To The 2019 NCAA Men’s Tournament: West region

Seed outlook: Gonzaga is the best club in the West by a substantial margin, but the Zags, despite reaching the final two decades ago, have performed well beneath this tournament’s lights. However, Gonzaga has a 70 percent likelihood of reaching the Elite Eight, based on our model, as well as the third-best odds of any team to reach the national championship game (26 percent).
Should Gonzaga face Syracuse in the next round, the Bulldogs trouble could be given by the Orange’s zone defense. This is the best crime Mark Few has experienced Spokane, but it could possibly be tested by some of the terrific defenses from the West: Four of the top 15 can be found in this region, including the top two in Texas Tech and Michigan.
Sneaky Final Four select: No. 4 Florida State. A fixture in the KenPom Top 20 for the majority of the season, the Seminoles are hoping to build on last year’s tournament run, which saw them come inside a 4-point margin of creating the Final Four. FSU has a dominant defense (No. 9 at Pomeroy’s ratings) and a balanced roster that saw four players accumulate at least 2.5 win stocks. This draw is not horrible, either: Vermont is not particularly tough as a first-round foe, and Marquette is very beatable (more on this below). No. 1 seeded Gonzaga probably looms then, and we give FSU a 24 percent chance from the Zags — but the Seminoles could have a 48 percent chance of creating the Final Four when they had been to pull off the upset.
Do not bet : No. 5 Marquette. Teams seeded fifth aren’t usually good bets to make it past the Sweet 16 anyhow, but Marquette could be a particularly terrible choice. As stated by the FiveThirtyEight energy ratings, the Golden Eagles are undoubtedly the worst No. 5 seed in the field, and also a first-round date using breakout mid-major superstar Ja Morant did not do any favors. Marquette has some star power of its own in junior guard Markus Howard, who ranks sixth in the nation with an average of 25 points per game, but this team dropped five of its last six games and has a challenging tournament road ahead of it.
Cinderella see: No. 10 Florida. The Gators might have been one of the bubble teams to sneak into the area of 68, but they could be poised to do some damage that they are here. They drew Nevada, a so-so No. 7 seed, in the very first round, and also we give Florida a 42 percent chance of pulling the upset that. Last year’s national runner-up, Michigan, likely waits in Round two, and that is a tough matchup (23 percentage odds for Florida) — but if the Gators win, then they’ve a 38 percent chance of making the Elite Eight. Than the normal 10-seed, Florida looks better in a region with a number of good-but-flawed options.
Player to watch: Gonzaga, Brandon Clarke This Zags’ linchpin is not the consensus lottery pick, nor the two guards that have together started 87 percent of Gonzaga’s games over the previous two seasons. It’s a transfer from San Jose State who is in his first busy season with the group, Brandon Clarke. He is perhaps the most underappreciated player in the country.
On a team that comes with a 7-footer shielding the rim, it’s Clarke. Clarke has reacted by setting a single-season blocks record and posting the maximum block rate of any team under Few.
“Should I feel as when I can get a good, fast jump , I will pretty much leap with anybody,” Clarke told me. “I mean, I’ve seen Zion (Williamson) coming down through the street before TV, and when I can not jump at the right time, I likely would not jump with him, however… I don’t actually see myself not jumping with anybody.”
Likeliest first-round upsets: No. 9 Baylor over No. 8 Syracuse (48 percent); No. 10 Florida over No. 7 Nevada (42 percent); No. 12 Murray State over No. 5 Marquette (32 percent)

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