Your Guide To The 2019 NCAA Men’s Tournament: West region

Best seed outlook: Gonzaga is the best team in the West with a substantial margin, but the Zags, despite reaching have performed well beneath the lights of this tournament. Still, Gonzaga has a 70 percent likelihood of reaching the Elite Eight, according to our model, and the third-best chances of any group to accomplish the national championship match (26 percent).
If Gonzaga face Syracuse in the next round, the Bulldogs trouble could be given by the Orange’s zone defense. This is the very best offense Mark Few has had in Spokane, but it could possibly be analyzed by any of the terrific defenses from the West: Four of the top 15 can be seen in this area, including the top two at Texas Tech and Michigan.
Sneaky Final Four pick: No. 4 Florida State. A fixture at the KenPom Top 20 for most of the season, the Seminoles are hoping to build on last year’s championship run, which saw them come inside a 4-point margin of creating the Final Four. FSU has a dominant defense (No. 9 in Pomeroy’s evaluations ) and a balanced roster that saw four players collect at least 2.5 win shares. This draw isn’t horrible, either: Vermont isn’t especially tough as a first-round foe, and Marquette is very beatable (more on that below). No. 1 seeded Gonzaga probably looms after that, and we give FSU a 24 percent chance from the Zags — but the Seminoles could have a 48 percent probability of creating the Final Four when they had been to pull off the upset.
Do not bet on: No. 5 Marquette. Teams seeded fifth are not generally good bets to make it past the Sweet 16 anyway, but Marquette could be an especially terrible pick. As stated by the FiveThirtyEight energy evaluations, the Golden Eagles are by far the worst No. 5 seed in the area, and a first-round date using breakout mid-major celebrity Ja Morant did not do them any favors. Marquette has a star power of its own in junior guard Markus Howard, who ranks sixth in the country with an average of 25 points per game, but this team dropped five of its final six games and has a tough tournament road before it.
Cinderella see: No. 10 Florida. They could be poised to do some damage they are here, although the Gators might have been among the bubble teams to sneak into the area of 68. They drew Nevada, a so-so No. 7 seed, at the very first round, and also we give Florida a 42 percent chance of pulling the upset there. Last year’s national runner-up, Michigan, likely waits in Round two, and that’s a tough matchup (23 percent likelihood of Florida) — however if the Gators win, they’ve a 38 percent likelihood of making the Elite Eight. Than the, Florida looks better in a region with quite a few good-but-flawed possibilities.
Player to watch: Gonzaga, Brandon Clarke The Zags’ linchpin is not the consensus lottery pick, nor the two guards that have started 87 percent of the games of Gonzaga . It is a transfer from San Jose State who’s in his first season with the group, Brandon Clarke. He is possibly the most underappreciated player in the country.
On a team that typically comes with a 7-footer shielding the rim, it is Clarke. Clarke has responded by placing a single-season blocks record and posting the highest block speed of any team under Couple.
“If I feel as when I can get a good, quick jump first, I’ll pretty much leap with anyone,” Clarke told me. “I mean, I have seen Zion (Williamson) coming down through the lane before TV, and when I can not jump at the ideal time, I probably would not jump with him, however… I do not actually see myself not jumping with anybody.”
Likeliest first-round upsets: No. 9 Baylor over No. 8 Syracuse (48 percent); No. 10 Florida over No. 7 Nevada (42 percent); No. 12 Murray State over No. 5 Marquette (32 percent)

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