Your Guide To The 2019 NCAA Men’s Tournament: West region

Top seed outlook: Gonzaga is the best club in the West by a considerable margin, but the Zags, despite reaching the final two years ago, have not always performed well under this tournament’s bright lights. However, Gonzaga has a 70 percent likelihood of reaching the Elite Eight, based on our model, and the third-best chances of any team to reach the national championship game (26 percent).
Should Gonzaga face Syracuse in the second round, the Bulldogs trouble could be given by the Orange’s zone defense. This is the very best crime Mark Few has experienced Spokane, but it could possibly be analyzed by any of the terrific defenses in the West: Four of the top 15 can be seen within this area, including the best two in Texas Tech and Michigan.
Sneaky Final Four pick: No. 4 Florida State. A fixture in the KenPom Top 20 for the majority of the season, the Seminoles are hoping to build on last year’s tournament run, which saw them come inside a 4-point margin of making the Final Four. FSU has a dominant defense (No. 9 in Pomeroy’s evaluations ) plus a balanced roster that saw four players collect at least 2.5 win stocks. This draw is not horrible, either: Vermont is not particularly difficult as a first-round foe, and Marquette is very beatable (more on that below). No. 1 seeded Gonzaga probably looms after that, and also we give FSU a 24 percent chance from the Zags — but the Seminoles would have a 48 percent chance of making the Final Four when they were to pull off the upset.
Do not wager on: No. 5 Marquette. Teams seeded fifth are not generally good bets to make it past the Sweet 16 anyhow, but Marquette might be a particularly terrible pick. As stated by the FiveThirtyEight energy evaluations, the Golden Eagles are undoubtedly the worst No. 5 seed in the area, and also a first-round date with breakout mid-major celebrity Ja Morant didn’t do any favors. Marquette has a star power of its own in junior guard Markus Howard, who ranks sixth in the country with an average of 25 points per game, but this team dropped five of its final six matches and has a tough tournament road before it.
Cinderella see: No. 10 Florida. The Gators might have been one of the bubble teams to creep in the field of 68, but they could be poised to do some damage now they are here. They drew Nevada, a so-so No. 7 seed, at the very first round, and we give Florida a 42 percent chance of pulling the upset that. Last year’s nationwide runner-up, Michigan, likely waits in Round two, and that is a tough matchup (23 percent likelihood of Florida) — however when the Gators win, then they have a 38 percent chance of earning the Elite Eight. Than the, Florida looks better in a region with a number of possibilities that are good-but-flawed.
Player to watch: Brandon Clarke The linchpin of this Zags isn’t the consensus lottery selection, nor the two veteran guards who have collectively started 87 percent of the games of Gonzaga . It’s Brandon Clarke, a transfer from San Jose State who’s in his first busy season with the group. He is possibly the most underappreciated player in the country.
On a team that features a 7-footer protecting the rim, it is Clarke, at 6-foot-8, who is tasked with protecting the paint this year. Clarke has responded by setting a single-season blocks record and posting the maximum block rate of any group under Few.
“If I feel like when I can get a good, quick jump first, I’ll pretty much jump with anyone,” Clarke told me. “I mean, I have seen Zion (Williamson) coming down through the lane before on TV, and when I can not jump at the ideal time, I likely wouldn’t jump with him, however… I do not actually see myself not leaping with anybody.”
Likeliest first-round upsets: No. 9 Baylor over No. 8 Syracuse (48 percent); No. 10 Florida over No. 7 Nevada (42 percent); No. 12 Murray State over No. 5 Marquette (32 percent)

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