Your Guide To The 2019 NCAA Men’s Tournament: West region

Seed outlook: Gonzaga is the best club in the West by a considerable margin, but the Zags, despite reaching the final two decades ago, have performed well beneath the glowing lights of the tournament. Still, Gonzaga has a 70 percent probability of reaching the Elite Eight, based on our model, and the third-best odds of any group to accomplish the national championship match (26 percent).
Should Gonzaga face Syracuse in the next round, the Bulldogs trouble could be given by the Orange’s zone defense. This is the best offense Mark Few has experienced Spokane, but it could possibly be analyzed by some of the terrific defenses from the West: Four of the top 15 can be seen in this area, including the top two in Texas Tech and Michigan.
Sneaky Final Four pick: No. 4 Florida State. A fixture in the KenPom Top 20 for the majority of the season, the Seminoles are hoping to build on last year’s tournament run, which saw them come within a 4-point margin of creating the Final Four. FSU has a dominant defense (No. 9 at Pomeroy’s ratings) plus a balanced roster that saw four players collect at least 2.5 win stocks. This draw isn’t horrible, either: Vermont isn’t particularly difficult as a first-round foe, and Marquette is quite beatable (more on that below). No. 1 seeded Gonzaga probably looms after that, and we give FSU a 24 percent chance from the Zags — but the Seminoles would have a 48 percent chance of making the Final Four if they had been to pull off the upset.
Don’t wager on: No. 5 Marquette. Teams seeded fifth aren’t usually good bets to make it past the Sweet 16 anyhow, but Marquette could be an especially bad pick. According to the FiveThirtyEight energy ratings, the Golden Eagles are by far the worst No. 5 seed in the field, and a first-round date using breakout mid-major celebrity Ja Morant did not do them any favors. Marquette has a star power of its own in junior guard Markus Howard, who ranks sixth in the nation with an average of 25 points per game, but this team dropped five of its last six matches and has a challenging tournament road before it.
Cinderella see: No. 10 Florida. They are poised to do some damage today that they are here, although the Gators may have been among the last bubble teams to creep into the area of 68. They brought Nevada, a so-so No. 7 seed, in the very first round, and we provide Florida a 42 percent chance of pulling the upset there. Last year’s national runner-up, Michigan, likely waits in Round 2, and that is a tough matchup (23 percent likelihood for Florida) — however if the Gators win, they’ve a 38 percent chance of earning the Elite Eight. Than the, Florida appears better in a region with quite a few possibilities that are good-but-flawed.
Player to watch: Brandon Clarke The Zags’ linchpin isn’t the consensus lottery pick, nor the two guards who have started 87 percent of the games of Gonzaga . It’s Brandon Clarke, a transfer from San Jose State who’s in his first busy season with the team. He is perhaps the most underappreciated player in the nation.
On a group that typically comes with a it’s Clarke, at 6-foot-8, who’s tasked with protecting the paint this year. Clarke has reacted by placing a single-season blocks record and posting the highest block rate of any team under Few.
“Should I feel as if I could find a good, quick jump , I’ll pretty much leap with anybody,” Clarke told me. “I mean, I’ve seen Zion (Williamson) coming down through the street before on TV, and when I can not jump at the ideal time, I probably wouldn’t jump , however… I don’t actually see myself not jumping with anyone.”
Likeliest first-round upsets: No. 9 Baylor over No. 8 Syracuse (48 percent); No. 10 Florida over No. 7 Nevada (42 percent); No. 12 Murray State over No. 5 Marquette (32 percent)

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